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Prediction for CME (2023-08-04T04:17:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-08-04T04:17Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26324/-1
CME Note: First of two CMEs seen to the N and W in SOHO/STEREO A imagery in association with a long duration M1.9-class flare near the vicinity of AR13386 (N12W46) and a complex, sympathetic eruptive signature before/after the flare. This CME is directed more northward than the latter CME, appearing bulbous with a protruding leading edge and a wide/faint shock seen predominantly to the N and NE. Arrival signature: Likely an arrival of a flux rope at L1, associated with an increase of B total to over 10nT, with rotation of magnetic field components. Confirmed by the LASSOS team.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-08-07T01:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-08-06T12:14Z (-9.71h, +13.15h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:

Time of Launch: 2023/08/04 04:10Z
Plane of Sky 1: 09:10Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction
Plane of Sky 2: 16:50Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction
POS Difference: 7:40
POS Midpoint: 13:00Z
TOL/Midpoint Difference: 8:50

Numeric View/Impact Type: 2
POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.35
Travel Time: ~6.35 * 8:50 = 56:04

Predicted L1 Arrival: 2023-08-06T12:14Z

Error Parameters:
 - POS Difference: 1.5 Hours
 - Travel Time: 5%

Lead Time: 55.48 hour(s)
Difference: 13.02 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2023-08-04T17:46Z

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